"""One-off paired checks for CRITIQUE-R2-statistician findings 8, 9, 10 and 12 (stdlib only).

Reads door rows by id and verdict only; never prints planted text.
"""
import json
from math import comb

B = "/workshop/estate-worktrees/lead-ledger/bench/"


def p2(b, c):
    n = b + c
    k = min(b, c)
    return min(1.0, 2 * sum(comb(n, i) for i in range(k + 1)) / 2 ** n)


def jl(p):
    return [json.loads(l) for l in open(B + p) if l.strip()]


def carried(p):
    out = {}
    for r in jl(p):
        out[r["uid"]] = r["correct"] if isinstance(r.get("correct"), bool) else r.get("choice") == r.get("label")
    return out


# Finding 9: live door (09-13) v APUS-OpenJev-v1 9B high on the same 36 planted lines
live = {r["id"]: r["outcome"] == "refused" for r in jl("doorman-planted-2026-09-13/out/verdicts.jsonl")}
ap = jl("apus-2026-09-28/rows/apus-9b-high.kd.jsonl")
assert all((r["gemma_choice"] == "refuse") == live[r["id"]] for r in ap)
b = sum(1 for r in ap if r["planted"] and r["choice"] == "refuse" and not live[r["id"]])
c = sum(1 for r in ap if r["planted"] and live[r["id"]] and r["choice"] != "refuse")
print(f"door, planted: APUS-9B only {b}, live only {c}, exact p {p2(b, c):.4f}")

# Finding 10: moved-under-shuffle, paired
def moved(p):
    return {r["uid"]: r["argmax_stable"] is False for r in jl(p)}

M = {"lev": moved("lev-2026-09-28/rows/lev-4b.kperm.jsonl"),
     "kev9b": moved("jev-2026-09-21/rows-gaps-card/kev-9b.kperm.jsonl"),
     "apus9b": moved("apus-2026-09-28/rows/apus-9b-high.kperm.jsonl")}
for a, bb in [("lev", "kev9b"), ("lev", "apus9b"), ("kev9b", "apus9b")]:
    x = sum(1 for u in M[a] if M[a][u] and not M[bb][u])
    y = sum(1 for u in M[a] if M[bb][u] and not M[a][u])
    print(f"moved: {a} only {x}, {bb} only {y}, exact p {p2(x, y):.3f}")

# Finding 8: per option order v the naive Bayes
nb = carried("deem-2026-09-27/t1-tune/rows/t1-baseline-nb.s0.P.rep1.jsonl")
for m, p in {"kev-9b": "jev-2026-09-21/rows-gaps-card/kev-9b.kperm.jsonl",
             "kev-4b": "jev-2026-09-21/rows-gaps-card/kev-4b.kperm.jsonl",
             "lev-4b": "lev-2026-09-28/rows/lev-4b.kperm.jsonl",
             "apus-9b-high": "apus-2026-09-28/rows/apus-9b-high.kperm.jsonl",
             "apus-4b-high": "apus-2026-09-28/a1b/rows/apus-4b-high.kperm.jsonl"}.items():
    rows = jl(p)
    cells = []
    for o in range(len(rows[0]["choices_by_order"])):
        right = {r["uid"]: r["choices_by_order"][o] == r["label"] for r in rows}
        x = sum(1 for u in right if right[u] and not nb[u])
        y = sum(1 for u in right if nb[u] and not right[u])
        cells.append(f"{sum(right.values())} ({x}-{y}, p {p2(x, y):.2f})")
    print(m, " | ".join(cells))

# Finding 12: Lev-4B v APUS-OpenJev-v1 4B high on the six-way
lev = {r["uid"]: r for r in jl("lev-2026-09-28/rows/lev-4b.kc.jsonl")}
a4 = {r["uid"]: r for r in jl("apus-2026-09-28/a1b/rows/apus-4b-high.kc.jsonl")}
diff = sum(1 for u in lev if lev[u]["choice"] != a4[u]["choice"])
x = sum(1 for u in lev if a4[u]["choice"] == a4[u]["label"] and lev[u]["choice"] != lev[u]["label"])
y = sum(1 for u in lev if lev[u]["choice"] == lev[u]["label"] and a4[u]["choice"] != a4[u]["label"])
print(f"lev v apus-4b-high: different guest on {diff}; right only APUS {x}, right only Lev {y}, p {p2(x, y):.2f}")