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 "title": "Why we write the bet down first",
 "dek": "Before one of our benches runs, we write down what we expect, what counts as a pass and what we will print on a failure, then seal the file. This guide says why, where the habit comes from, the night a control reported a card our sandbox could not see, and a five-line version for your own machine.",
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  "url": "https://research.strata2signal.com/write-the-bet-down-first/",
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 "short": {
  "paragraph": "A benchmark on your own hardware is cheap to repeat, and that is the problem: a second run, a different flag, a warmer cache or a kinder subset is one more try until the number looks right. Pre-registration is the habit of writing the question, the predictions, the pass marks and the failure wording down before the data exist, so the data can only confirm or refute them. Medicine adopted it for clinical trials, particle physics adopted a stricter cousin called blind analysis, and the same discipline fits a one-person bench. We use four habits: a plan sealed with a sha256 fingerprint and a UTC time; controls, runs whose answer we already know; amendments, dated and written before the run they touch, kept outside the sealed text (our recent plans keep them in a file beside it); and losing bets printed as losses, with no table of what the loser would have needed. On 2026-10-29 one of those controls, the first step of a scheduled overnight run, read \"0.0 % on card\": the sandbox could not see the GPU, the model ran on the CPU at about a tenth of its usual speed, and no other check in the run pointed to the card. The control was registered to report, not to stop the night, so the night still measured nothing; its lesson became a gate for the next bench, written and stamped before that bench's first scored run, and the gate read the card on its first night. The lost night's re-run was registered by a signed amendment on 2026-11-10 and had not run on 2026-11-10 (UTC), when this page was written.",
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 "chips": [
  {
   "id": "c-a2f5e1a1",
   "q": "what happened during the inference server window on 2026-10-29?",
   "a": "A scheduled window on an inference server resulted in a failure where the anchor model loaded into system memory instead of the card, writing at 19.5 tokens a second compared to a known 201.82. The main model failed as well, though the scheduler reported the night as green.",
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   "q": "how does pre-registration distinguish different types of analysis?",
   "a": "Pre-registration distinguishes analyses and outcomes resulting from predictions from those resulting from postdictions. In prediction, data are used to confront the possibility that a prediction is wrong, whereas postdictions are made after the data are in to explain them.",
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   "q": "what happens when a prediction is refuted by the data?",
   "a": "When a prediction is refuted, it is printed as such. For example, a predicted memory clock of 15,001 MHz that read 14,801 on every run is printed as refuted. If a model fails its gate, it receives a verdict like FAIL, VOID, or NOT TESTED.",
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   "published": false,
   "publish_state": "held",
   "quote": "",
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 "related": [
  {
   "slug": "how-a-vision-model-sees",
   "why": "shares ground with § A pre-registration for your next bench, in five lines · § The bench, in one paragraph"
  },
  {
   "slug": "how-the-print-lab-works",
   "why": "shares ground with § A pre-registration for your next bench, in five lines · § The board"
  },
  {
   "slug": "ask-about-this-page",
   "why": "shares ground with § A pre-registration for your next bench, in five lines · § The bench: what we measured before linking it"
  }
 ],
 "thanks": "## Who ran this, and thanks {#who-ran-this-and-thanks}\n\nThanks to the authors whose work this guide leans on, named below, and to the Center for Open Science, the LIGO Scientific Collaboration and the Caltech archives for keeping their pages open. Software this page's own examples stood on: Ollama 0.32.13, Python 3, GNU coreutils (`sha256sum`, `sed`, `date`), git and bubblewrap. A small human team set the rules this page describes and ruled on the calls put to it, the re-run among them; a fleet of AI agents drafted the plans, applied the rules case by case, ran the checks, kept the records and drafted this page under that team's rulings.",
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    "why": "says registration exists 'to prevent postdiction'; the section, in Nosek's words, says it DISTINGUISHES predictions from postdictions, and the page's last section says exploratory figures are not banned, only labelled (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC)",
    "detail": "Carried forward by --carry-hand-edits on 2026-11-10: the writer produced this line again and the pack on disk records it removed by hand on 2026-11-10 (matched on its section). The earlier record reads: removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: says registration exists 'to prevent postdiction'; the section, in Nosek's words, says it DISTINGUISHES predictions from postdictions, and the page's last section says exploratory figures are not banned, only labelled (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate drop, and recorded here so the ledg…"
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    "detail": "Carried forward by --carry-hand-edits on 2026-11-10: the writer produced this line again and the pack on disk records it removed by hand on 2026-11-10 (matched on its section). The earlier record reads: removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: garbled: 'the temptation to avoid self-deception is high' inverts the section, where the cheap re-run is the temptation and Feynman's line is that you must not fool yourself; it also drops the page's caveat that reading Gelman and Loken onto a desk is ours (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a g…"
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    "detail": "Carried forward by --carry-hand-edits on 2026-11-10: the writer produced this line again and the pack on disk records it removed by hand on 2026-11-10 (matched on its section). The earlier record reads: removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: states as the one form of every plan what the section says of the night's plan and recent ones; the same section says older plans sealed differently (the ceiling page's plan seals near its top and carries its amendments on its tail) (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate drop, and recorded h…"
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    "detail": "Carried forward by --carry-hand-edits on 2026-11-10: the writer produced this line again and the pack on disk records it removed by hand on 2026-11-10 (matched on its section). The earlier record reads: removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: says the prose rules forbid sentences 'when numbers are unflattering'; the section says the forbidden sentences were written BEFORE the numbers existed and bind now that the numbers are unflattering: the order is the point (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate drop, and recorded here so the…"
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    "detail": "Carried forward by --carry-hand-edits on 2026-11-10: the writer produced this line again and the pack on disk records it removed by hand on 2026-11-10 (matched on its section). The earlier record reads: removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: says all links and quotations were verified in November 2026; the page re-read its outside quotations on 2026-10-29 and re-checked their links on 2026-11-10, and the section lists no software (the thanks section does) (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate drop, and recorded here so the ledg…"
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    "why": "says controls are runs 'used to ensure an instrument is not broken' and that anchors and planted faults 'ensure' the test suites and tools catch errors; the section says a control that comes back wrong SHOWS the instrument is broken (it detects, it does not ensure: the night's anchor caught the fault and the night still measured nothing), and it keeps the two apart: the anchor is a known model run first in the night's row, the planted faults are the test suites' own (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC)",
    "detail": "Carried forward by --carry-hand-edits on 2026-11-10: the writer produced this line again and the pack on disk records it removed by hand on 2026-11-10 (matched on its section). The earlier record reads: removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: says controls are runs 'used to ensure an instrument is not broken' and that anchors and planted faults 'ensure' the test suites and tools catch errors; the section says a control that comes back wrong SHOWS the instrument is broken (it detects, it does not ensure: the night's anchor caught t…"
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    "why": "states as a limit of registration itself what the section says of this workshop's own seals (no outside registry used, public copies of sealed files re-cut for privacy); the FROZEN line section says an outside registry would add a dated copy a stranger could check, and the digest's sentence on predictions that hold is garbled (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC)",
    "detail": "Carried forward by --carry-hand-edits on 2026-11-10: the writer produced this line again and the pack on disk records it removed by hand on 2026-11-10 (matched on its line key). The earlier record reads: removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: states as a limit of registration itself what the section says of this workshop's own seals (no outside registry used, public copies of sealed files re-cut for privacy); the FROZEN line section says an outside registry would add a dated copy a stranger could check, and the digest's sentence o…"
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    "why": "says a table of the margins by which a candidate would have passed 'is considered a postdiction or HARKing'; the section calls a bar fitted to a reading already seen HARKing only 'on our reading of his term' (Kerr's), and the digest drops that caveat (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC)",
    "detail": "Carried forward by --carry-hand-edits on 2026-11-10: the writer produced this line again and the pack on disk records it removed by hand on 2026-11-10 (matched on its section). The earlier record reads: removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: says a table of the margins by which a candidate would have passed 'is considered a postdiction or HARKing'; the section calls a bar fitted to a reading already seen HARKing only 'on our reading of his term' (Kerr's), and the digest drops that caveat (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate dr…"
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    "withheld": "one chip removed from this pack by hand",
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    "why": "misstates the quotation (Gelman and Loken: other analyses, not the assumptions, would have been just as reasonable had the data turned out differently) and drops the page's caveat that applying it to a desk is our reading, not theirs (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC)",
    "detail": "Carried forward by --carry-hand-edits on 2026-11-10: the writer produced this line again and the pack on disk records it removed by hand on 2026-11-10 (matched on its question). The earlier record reads: removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: misstates the quotation (Gelman and Loken: other analyses, not the assumptions, would have been just as reasonable had the data turned out differently) and drops the page's caveat that applying it to a desk is our reading, not theirs (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate drop, and recorded …"
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    "withheld": "one bullet removed from this pack by hand",
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    "why": "says the plan was re-run; the section says the night is to be re-run under an amendment signed 2026-11-10, and that the re-run had not run when the page was written (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC)",
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    "detail": "removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: names no plan: read alone under the short version, 'the plan' reads as the page's or every plan, where the section dates only the 2026-10-29 night's plan; the first hand-read's reason for 'the first amendment was written on 2026-11-02' (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate drop, and recorded here so the ledger adds up."
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    "removed_utc": "2026-11-10",
    "why": "says a positive control coming back positive PROVES the instrument is not broken; the section says a control that comes back wrong shows the instrument is broken, and its own control that could not fail passed anyway: it detects, it does not prove (the class of the release audit's M-1 drop) (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC)",
    "detail": "removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: says a positive control coming back positive PROVES the instrument is not broken; the section says a control that comes back wrong shows the instrument is broken, and its own control that could not fail passed anyway: it detects, it does not prove (the class of the release audit's M-1 drop) (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate drop, and recorded here so the ledger adds up."
   },
   {
    "kind": "chip",
    "reason": "hand-edit",
    "item": null,
    "item_chars": 321,
    "text_sha": "7637a6cb438d",
    "chip_id": "c-a05c98d7",
    "withheld": "one chip removed from this pack by hand",
    "removed_utc": "2026-11-10",
    "why": "inverts the rule: it says an amendment written before the first scored run voids the comparison it touches; the section says that is the allowed amendment, and only one written AFTER a scored call voids what it touches (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC)",
    "detail": "removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: inverts the rule: it says an amendment written before the first scored run voids the comparison it touches; the section says that is the allowed amendment, and only one written AFTER a scored call voids what it touches (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate drop, and recorded here so the ledger adds up."
   },
   {
    "kind": "chip",
    "reason": "hand-edit",
    "item": null,
    "item_chars": 272,
    "text_sha": "a6141f5f6e38",
    "chip_id": "c-6e2d1153",
    "withheld": "one chip removed from this pack by hand",
    "removed_utc": "2026-11-10",
    "why": "states the page's five-line version for a reader's next bench as what every pre-registration consists of; the section offers it as a minimum for your own bench, and the page's own definition (What pre-registration is) names no control (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC)",
    "detail": "removed from this pack by hand on 2026-11-10 (UTC), after the writer ran and after the gates had counted: states the page's five-line version for a reader's next bench as what every pre-registration consists of; the section offers it as a minimum for your own bench, and the page's own definition (What pre-registration is) names no control (hand-read 2026-11-10, UTC). Not a gate drop, and recorded here so the ledger adds up."
   }
  ]
 },
 "generated_utc": "2026-11-10T22:01:41Z"
}